Africa's Best Performing Bond Markets in 2026: Where Yields Fell, and Where Investors Earned the Most
2026 has been one of the best years in a decade to own African government debt. Across the continent, central banks that spent 2023 and 2024 fighting inflation with very high rates have been cutting, and when rates fall, the bonds and bills bought at the old, higher yields gain in value. In five of the biggest local-currency markets, the 12-month Treasury bill yield is now lower than it was in January, in some cases by several percentage points.
2026 has been one of the best years in a decade to own African government debt. Across the continent, central banks that spent 2023 and 2024 fighting inflation with very high rates have been cutting, and when rates fall, the bonds and bills bought at the old, higher yields gain in value. In five of the biggest local-currency markets, the 12-month Treasury bill yield is now lower than it was in January, in some cases by several percentage points.
But "best performing" depends on what you measure. A market where yields fell sharply rewarded investors who locked in early. A market where yields are still well above inflation pays the most real income today. This review ranks Africa's bond markets on both, using the auction results tracked on the Mansa Markets bond hub and the latest official inflation figures.
How we ranked the markets
We looked at three things for each market:
- Yield move in 2026. The change in the 12-month Treasury bill auction yield from early 2026 to the latest auction. Falling yields mean rising prices for existing holders.
- Real yield today. The latest 12-month bill yield minus the latest annual inflation rate. This is what a new buyer earns after inflation.
- Direction of travel. Whether inflation and policy rates are still moving in investors' favour.
Treasury bill yields are the cleanest comparison because nearly every African government auctions them on a regular schedule. Longer bonds usually moved in the same direction, and by more, because a longer bond's price is more sensitive to a change in rates.
The 2026 scorecard
| Market | 12-month bill, early 2026 | 12-month bill, latest | Change | Latest inflation | Real yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malawi | 26.00% (Dec 2025) | 16.00% (27 Oct) | -10.0 pts | 19.4% (Sep) | -3.4% |
| Zambia | 14.50% (5 Feb) | 10.00% (29 Oct) | -4.5 pts | 6.1% (Sep) | +3.9% |
| Ghana | 12.82% (30 Jan) | 9.60% (30 Oct) | -3.2 pts | 5.2% (Sep) | +4.4% |
| Nigeria | 17.59% (12 Aug) | 15.80% (28 Oct) | -1.8 pts since Aug | 14.63% (Sep) | +1.2% |
| Kenya | 9.23% (26 Jan) | 9.03% (2 Nov) | -0.2 pts | 6.8% (Sep) | +2.2% |
| South Africa | 7.20% (21 Apr) | 7.46% (29 Oct) | +0.3 pts | 4.5% (Sep) | +3.0% |
Yields are primary-auction results. Real yield is the latest 12-month bill yield minus the latest annual inflation rate. Live rates for every market are on each country's bond page.
1. Zambia: the best all-round performer
Zambia is the strongest story of 2026. The 12-month bill fell from 14.5% in February to 10.0% by late October, and the 91-day bill from 12.0% to 8.5%. Anyone who bought Zambian government paper early in the year has gained as those yields fell, and they are still holding a security that pays well above inflation.
The reason is the inflation turnaround. Annual inflation dropped to 6.1% in September, the lowest since February 2018, after the debt restructuring was completed and the kwacha stabilised. That leaves a real yield of about 3.9% even after this year's rally, one of the highest positive real returns on the continent. Track the full curve on the Zambia bond page.
Watch: monthly inflation picked up to 0.4% in September, the fastest in five months. If that continues, the easing cycle could slow.
2. Ghana: the biggest real yield in Africa's large markets
Ghana's bill market staged a dramatic rally. The 12-month bill fell from about 12.8% at the end of January to 9.6%, and the 91-day bill collapsed from 10.8% to 4.6%, a fall of more than six percentage points in nine months.
What makes Ghana stand out is that inflation fell even faster. At 5.2% in September, Ghanaian inflation is now far below the 9.4% of a year earlier, giving a real yield of about 4.4% on 12-month paper, the highest among Africa's major markets. The Bank of Ghana's policy rate, held at 14% in September, is still far above inflation, which leaves room for further cuts. See today's rates in our Ghana Treasury bill rates guide or on the Ghana bond page.
Watch: inflation has risen for two straight months, and services inflation is running at 8.3%. The very low 91-day rate also means short-term savers now earn less than inflation.
3. Malawi: the biggest rally, but a negative real return
On the yield move alone, Malawi is Africa's best performing bond market of 2026. The 12-month bill fell from 26% at the end of 2025 to 16%, a ten-point drop, and the 91-day bill from 16% to 12%. Holders of Malawian bonds bought at the old rates have seen the largest price gains on the continent.
The catch is inflation. Annual inflation was still 19.4% in September, its first reading below 20% since May 2022, so a 16% bill pays a negative real yield of about 3.4%. Malawi rewarded investors who were already in, but for a new buyer it is a bet that inflation keeps falling toward the government's 15% target. Follow the auctions on the Malawi bond page.
4. Nigeria: high income, now with falling inflation
Nigeria still offers the highest nominal yields of any large African market. The 364-day bill has eased from 17.59% in August to 15.80% in late October, and the 91-day bill from 16.30% to 15.40%. Short-term corporate borrowing costs fell even faster: commercial paper that priced above 20% in early August was pricing near 17% by late October.
For the first time in years, Nigerian yields are also above inflation. Headline inflation fell to 14.63% in September, the lowest since October 2020, leaving a modest real yield of about 1.2%. That is thin compared with Ghana or Zambia, but the direction is what matters: each further fall in inflation increases the real return and supports more rate cuts. The full Treasury bill curve is on the Nigeria bond page, and Nigeria's US dollar bonds are on the African Eurobond tracker.
5. Kenya: steady, but the tide is turning
Kenya's bill yields have barely moved over the year. The 12-month bill is 9.03%, almost exactly where it started, but the 91-day bill has risen from 7.86% to 8.75%. That is a warning sign: inflation has climbed for three straight months to 6.8% in September, near the top of the central bank's target range.
Kenya still pays a positive real yield of about 2.2%, and its 10-year bond last cleared at 12.78%, but the rally that lifted other markets has not happened here, and rising short-term yields suggest investors are pricing in less easing ahead. See the latest auctions in our Kenya Treasury bill rates guide or on the Kenya bond page.
South Africa: the most stable, not the strongest
South Africa's bill market has been the calmest of the large markets. The 12-month bill has drifted from 7.20% in April to 7.46%, a small rise rather than a fall. Inflation of 4.5% in September is still above the Reserve Bank's new 3% goal, which keeps the bank cautious. A real yield of about 3% makes South African paper a solid income holding, but not one of 2026's big winners. Rates are on the South Africa bond page.
West Africa (WAEMU): low yields, low volatility
The eight countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union borrow in the CFA franc, which is pegged to the euro, so their yields are lower and move less. In late October the 12-month bill cleared at 3.89% in Ivory Coast, 4.51% in Mali and 8.06% in Senegal, while 3- to 5-year bonds cleared between about 6% and 8%. The peg removes most of the currency risk that dominates investing in Malawi, Nigeria or Ghana, which is why these markets are popular with regional banks and investors who want stability over high returns.
What the numbers mean for investors
- For income now: Ghana and Zambia offer the best combination of yield above inflation and improving fundamentals. South Africa and Kenya pay smaller but positive real yields.
- For high nominal yield: Nigeria and Malawi pay the most, but you are paid for taking inflation and currency risk. Nigeria's real yield has only just turned positive; Malawi's is still negative.
- For stability: WAEMU paper and South African bills move the least.
- Currency matters most for foreign investors. A 16% bill in a currency that falls 20% against the dollar loses money in dollar terms. If you invest from abroad, look at the exchange rate as well as the yield.
The easing cycle that powered 2026 is not over everywhere. Ghana, Zambia and Nigeria still have policy rates far above inflation, which suggests more room to cut in 2027. Kenya and Malawi are the markets to watch for signs that inflation is turning back up.
Compare live Treasury bill and bond yields for 20 African markets on the Mansa Markets bond hub, and if you also invest in equities, start with our complete guide to African stock markets.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Yields are primary-auction results as of the dates shown; inflation figures are the latest official annual rates published by each country's statistics office as of 1 November 2026. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before investing.